Best Masters Bets
3/16/2022 admin
Jan 18, 2021 Featured Horse Racing. Betfair's 2021 Cheltenham Offer: Everything you need to know to get £50 in free bets; Wolverhampton Racing Tips: Timeform's three best bets for Monday. Best Bets for a top five. To say Chase Elliott (+1000) has struggled at Daytona would be a gross understatement. In 10 starts on this track, he has been slowed or sidelined by damage at least.
It's the NFL postseason, and ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (0-2 last week, 21-33-2 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (2-2, 35-58-1), Anita Marks (5-15, 112-115-2), Preston Johnson (1-0, 16-20), Mike Clay (5-6, 21-16) and Tyler Fulghum (4-6-1, 64-87-3), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (0-2, 34-24), Seth Walder (0-0, 50-31) of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz (0-4, 42-49-2) of Football Outsiders are here to tell us what bets they like from this weekend's divisional-round slate.
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.
- The Masters Betting Odds. View all available outright and match odds, plus get news, tips, free bets and money-back offers. All you need to bet.
- Jan 15, 2021 Sunday's games Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 56.5), 3:05 p.m. Schatz: The Chiefs haven't won a game by more than a touchdown since Week 8 against the Jets. Conventional wisdom.
- Brooks Koepka also finished T7 and his best odds to win the 2021 Masters are +1800 at BetMGM, while FanDuel Sportsbook has Koepka at +1200. Xander Schauffele has best odds of +2000 at DraftKings.
Sunday's games
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 56.5), 3:05 p.m. ET
Schatz: The Chiefs haven't won a game by more than a touchdown since Week 8 against the Jets. Conventional wisdom says they've been holding back and will 'flip the switch' in the playoffs and suddenly become an unstoppable juggernaut. But there's no real evidence for that. The Browns may be only 12th in Football Outsiders' weighted DVOA ratings, but the Chiefs are only seventh (fifth if we remove Week 17 when they sat starters). A 10-point line is a really big gap, even if we believe the Chiefs are likely to win this game.
As for the over/under, these are the two worst defenses remaining in the playoffs, according to DVOA. We know how good the Chiefs' offense is, but you may not realize how hot the Browns' offense is. Since Week 12 -- but removing Week 16 when their wide receivers were all on the reserve/COVID-19 list -- the Browns have an offensive DVOA of 32.8%, which would be No. 1 in the NFL for the entire season.
Pick: Browns +10, over 56.5
Kezirian: The Chiefs have looked mostly disinterested for the past month or so, and now they enter off a bye and a Week 17 where their top players sat. I am tempted to grab double-digits, but I also know how dangerous that can be against Patrick Mahomes. So I will side with the first-quarter play, hoping Cleveland's rushing attack can take advantage of a vulnerable K.C. defense. I feel like that's the best way to isolate the potential rust.
Pick: Browns first quarter +3 (+100)
Marks: Neither of these defenses are anything to write home about. The Browns sport the 25th-ranked defense and are 23rd in points per drive allowed. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have the 31st-ranked run defense, which does not bode well for them against the Browns' rushing attack. The Browns' passing game has been terrific of late to finish the season ranked in the top 10. Two bad defenses, two explosive offenses and an expected fast-pace matchup screams over to me.
For props, Austin Hooper has played in almost 100% of the Browns' offensive snaps and is highly targeted in the red zone. No Odell, no problem; Rashard Higgins is averaging over 16 yards per reception. And expect chances for Mahomes to tuck it and run against a Browns defense that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Pick: Over 50.5 in teaser with Rams-Packers under 51.5, Hooper over 3.5 receptions (-125 at DK), Hooper over 38.5 receiving yards (-112 at DK), Hooper anytime TD (+250), Higgins over yards 46.5 (-112 at DK), Mahomes over 16.5 rush yards (-148 at DK), Travis Kelce TD and Chiefs win (-120), Mahomes TD and Chiefs win (+350)
Fulgham: The Chiefs have been off for a couple weeks, but I fully expect their offense to quickly return to form against a Browns defense that should impose little resistance to Andy Reid and Mahomes. Cleveland was 24th in QBR allowed and got eviscerated by the tight end position (only the Bears and Jets allowed more fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season). The fact that teams only ran for 110.8 yards per game against the Browns this season -- the ninth-lowest mark in the league -- should further entice Reid and the Chiefs to air it out against the Browns' pass-funnel defense.
Pick: Chiefs team total over 34.5, Kelce over 86.5 receiving yards (-118 at DK), Mahomes over 320.5 passing yards 320.5 (-118 at DK), Tyreek Hill over 81.5 receiving yards (-112 at DK)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3, 52), 6:40 p.m. ET
Marks: The key to beating the Bucs is pressuring Tom Brady without throwing the kitchen sink at him. The Bucs kept six home last week against Washington, and Chase Young and crew could not get it done without blitzing. We have seen the Saints get to Brady with just four rushers this season, and that is the key -- keeping more players in coverage. In two games against the Saints, Brady sports a 58 passer rating, 60% completion percentage and a 2-5 TD-to-INT ratio. Washington almost upset the Bucs last week with a third-string quarterback. The Saints' offense is more explosive, especially with a healthy Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. The Saints get the job done, for the third time this season.
Pick: Saints +3 in teaser with Ravens +8.5, Saints alternate line -2.5 (-129 at DK), Brady under 306.5 pass yards (-115), Thomas over 79.5 receiving yards (-115), Brate over 19.5 receiving yards
Saturday's games
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 45.5)
Final: Packers 32, Rams 18
Schatz: The Packers are second overall in weighted DVOA while the Rams are eighth, and the Packers get the historical advantage of coming off the bye week. Green Bay was the No. 1 offense in the league this year. In particular, the Pack were the No. 1 offensive line in both pass block win rate and run block win rate, which is a bad matchup for Aaron Donald if he is at less than 100% because of his rib injury. Meanwhile, the Rams have put up offensive DVOA below average in five straight games and rank just 20th on offense since Week 10. And they will be going with a clearly injured Jared Goff at quarterback this week.
Pick: Packers -6.5
Fortenbaugh: I love this situation for Green Bay. The Packers get two weeks of rest and the familiar advantage of cold, hostile weather, against a rundown Rams team that is playing its fourth big game in as many weeks. Los Angeles was at Seattle in Week 16 playing for the NFC West, hosted Arizona in Week 17 playing for a postseason berth, at Seattle in the wild-card round playing to advance in the playoffs and now at Green Bay ... accompanied by a litany of injuries. That's the type of schedule that takes a serious toll on a team. Take note that the Rams have scored a grand total of just six points in the first quarter of those aforementioned games. Falling behind to Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field in January is a treacherous spot to find oneself.
Pick: Packers -6.5
Kezirian: The Packers have Rodgers and the Rams have Goff. That is obviously an oversimplification, but the differences in their health and ability should decide the outcome. I do think the Rams will hang and possibly pull off the upset, if Cam Akers can run all day on Green Bay's shaky rush defense. However, I just have to side with the Pack at Lambeau Field.
Pick: Under 50, Packers -0.5 in teaser with Ravens +8.5
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Marks: One of the league's best offenses will face off against one of the league's best defenses in what I expect to be a slow-paced game, and that screams under to me. The Rams expect to have Donald (ribs) active and ready to get after Rodgers. Goff will start at quarterback, but he'll be playing with a banged-up thumb in sub-freezing temperatures. Good luck with that.
The only player prop I like in this matchup is the over in rushing yards for Akers. Sean McVay has fed the running back a ton of touches over his last four games, and Akers faces a Packers defense that struggles against the rush.
Pick: Under 51.5 in teaser with Browns/Chiefs over 51, Rams team total under 19.5 (-110), Akers over 70.5 rush yards (-124 at DraftKings), Marquez Valdes-Scantling over 23.5 receiving yards
Walder: Leonard Floyd managed double-digit sacks this season despite the fact that his pass-rush win rate -- the rate he beats his blocker within 2.5 seconds -- as an edge is just 14%, below average among qualifiers at the position. Floyd's sack-to-pass-rush win ratio is 0.33, one of the highest in the league. If we look at sacks created, where we award credit to the pass-rusher who first beat his pass blocker on a sack play rather than the person who finished the sack (it can be the same person), Floyd had just 6.0 sacks created (both pass rush win rate and sacks created are ESPN metrics using NFL Next Gen Stats). Both of these suggest one or both of these things: Floyd has been lucky and Donald has created sacks for Floyd. The latter is almost certainly true, but I'm guessing the former has at least played a role. Add in that Rodgers takes sacks at the sixth-lowest rate in the league and I'll bet against Floyd.
Pick: Floyd under 0.5 sacks (-167 at DK)
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 50)
Final: Bills 17, Ravens 3
Bearman: The Ravens, winners of six straight games since their COVID-19 issues went away, now resemble the team that went 14-2 last season. The defense has allowed fewer than 20 points in six of the past seven games and totally shut down the Derrick Henry/Ryan Tannehill juggernaut last week. After the Titans jumped out to a 10-0 lead, the Baltimore defense held them to 103 total yards on 31 plays. Can they stop Josh Allen and the Bills' offense?
Buffalo has one of the strongest passing teams in the league, finishing third in the NFL at 288.9 yards per game. However, the Ravens' defense is sixth against the pass, holding teams to 221 yards per game -- and just 156.5 passing yards per game over their last four. On the offensive side, the Ravens are averaging 262.2 rushing yards per game and have 14 rushing TDs during the six-game winning streak, with Lamar Jackson accounting for 94 yards per game. That happens to be the Achilles' heel for the Bills, who have allowed almost 108 rushing yards per game (20th in the league) -- and that was before allowing 163 yards on the ground to the Colts last week.
I do believe the Bills are a team that can make a deep run to the Super Bowl, but first they have to get past one of the hottest teams in the league. John Harbaugh is 8-5 in playoff road games, the most road wins by any coach in league history. Early concerns about bad weather in Orchard Park have gone away, so Jackson shouldn't have to worry about playing in snow for the first time. I like this game to resemble last week's 20-13 Ravens win with a little more scoring, but not enough to break 50. If you can find any +3s out there, jump on them, but if not, Ravens with points should be fine.
Pick: Ravens +2.5, under 50
Fortenbaugh: Indianapolis just held Buffalo's high-powered offense to its second-lowest points output in the franchise's last nine games. If the Colts were capable of forcing some stops, what do you think is going to happen when a Baltimore club that ranks second in scoring defense and T-6 in opponent yards per play is going to be able to accomplish? Remember, the Ravens rank 31st in pace and should have success running the football against a Bills team that ranks 25th in opponent yards per carry. Slow-moving rushing attacks backed up by elite defenses are gold when it comes to betting unders.
Pick: Under 50
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Kezirian: Is Baltimore back? I'm not quite sure, but the Ravens finally won a big game. Now they travel to Orchard Park and bring a defense that has ranked among the stingiest this season in yards per play allowed. Their defensive efficiency ranks in the top five in both rush and pass defense. To me, this just feels like a tight and relatively low-scoring game. So I am on the under and will grab Baltimore in a teaser with more than one score.
Pick: Under 50, Ravens +8.5 in teaser with Packers -0.5
Schatz: Football Outsiders offensive line analyst Ben Muth surmised that the Bills would run Allen more in the playoffs than they had in the regular season, and wouldn't you know it ... Allen ran 11 times for 54 yards against the Colts. A similar strategy might have Allen running more against the Ravens as well, especially given the absence of running back Zack Moss. There's also the possibility of snow Saturday night, which would depress passing yardage and likely give Allen more opportunities for both designed runs and scrambles.
Pick: Allen over 37.5 rushing yards (-130)
Marks: The Ravens and Bills sport two of the most explosive offenses in the postseason, so this will be a fun one to watch. I'm teasing the underdog; I like the Ravens getting more than a touchdown because this game could come down to a made or missed field goal.
Regarding props, Stefon Diggs will see a lot of man coverage, Devin Singletary will have to fill the void of Moss, and Mark Andrews has a favorable matchup and should find the end zone again this Saturday. Both quarterbacks will face much more stout pass defenses and will need to run with the ball to help move the chains. Jackson needs one more 100-yard rushing game to tie Michael Vick's record of 11, so I expect him to crush the books' number.
Pick: Ravens +8.5 in teaser with Saints +3, Jackson over 74.5 rush yards (-115), Allen over 37.5 rush yards (-130), Allen anytime TD (+110), Diggs over 6.5 receptions (-150), Singletary over 66.5 total yards (-115), Andrews over 4.5 receptions (-135), Andrews anytime TD (+200)
Fulghum: The Ravens were my pick to win the Super Bowl prior to the season, so I have to ride with them here. They've been outstanding in all three phases during their six-game win streak. The offense is averaging 267 rushing yards per game and 7.6 yards per carry over that stretch. Jackson's legs should be the catalyst against a Bills defense that was 26th in the NFL this season allowing 4.62 yards per rush.
Without Moss (ankle), the work in the Bills backfield should be split between Singletary and Allen, who will likely act as the short-yardage and goal-line option because of his size.
Pick: Ravens +2.5, over 50, Allen over 7.5 rush attempts (-110), Jackson over 74.5 rushing yards (-115), Singletary over 2.5 receptions (-170)
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Walder: I can't say enough good things about Diggs this season, but as impressive as he's been, I don't think we can justify this high of a longest reception line based on the way the Bills use him. Buffalo takes advantage of Diggs' downfield ability by using that threat against defenses on shorter routes. He ran vertical routes just 28% of the time this year -- down from 40% last year -- and in their stead mostly were comebacks, curls and hitches. Among receivers with at least 200 routes run this year, Diggs ranks 80th in depth at 3 seconds and 53rd in air yards per target. The high volume is a concern, yes, but this is still one of the highest lines you'll see on a longest reception prop. This was one of my favorite bets of the year early on when the line was in this range before it dropped back down.
On the defensive side, Jerry Hughes has very quietly had an incredible pass-rush win rate season (he ranked second to T.J. Watt among edge players), despite an underwhelming 4.5 sacks. While I do believe that the second half of a pass rush -- finishing the play -- is a skill, Hughes' sack-to-pass rush win ratio of 0.08 is less than half the league average, so I'm willing to bank that the market is underrating him.
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Pick: Diggs longest reception under 26.5 yards (-115), Hughes over 0.5 sacks (+325 at DraftKings)