Moneyline Betting in the NBA

NBA bettors are faced with many decisions on a daily basis. They have several different options on any one game, ranging from point spreads to totals to moneylines. Even though the majority of wagers placed on the NBA use the point spread, there are times when it may be more beneficial to a bettor to play the moneyline.

NBA Spreads Explained Betting NBA spreads or ATS for short is the most popular way to bet on NBA games and is also very simple to understand. An NBA spread also known as a point spread is how many points a team can either win or lose by to win a bet. Basketball Moneylines Expressed as Fractions or Decimals While NBA moneylines are most commonly expressed in “American” odds, you may also encounter sportsbooks that use either decimal or fractional odds. Most sportsbooks allow you to switch how the odds are displayed, flipping between American, decimal, and fractional odds. What Is a Moneyline Bet? A moneyline bet simply involves you picking one of two teams to win the game. No catch, no angle, just the right answer or the wrong answer. Each team/person in a matchup for a moneyline betting option is given a separate numerical value.

Determining when to bet against the point spread and when to use the moneyline isn’t necessarily easy. There is no formula that says to bet 7-point favorites on the moneyline, even though that has been extremely profitable over the past few seasons. All a bettor can really do is look at past results to help them decide if they are better off using the moneyline or the point spread and look at the game in question and how strongly they believe in their opinion.

The NBA has seen favorites cover the point spread more than the underdogs have during the past few seasons. Between the 2010-11 and 2012-13 seasons, betting $100 on every favorite of 2 to 10 points would have shown a loss of $5,740. But wagering $100 on every underdog of 2 and 10 points would have netted a loss of $22,750.

Likewise, a flat-bet on all moneyline favorites between 2 and 10 points would have shown a loss of $14,880, while blindly wagering $100 on each underdog would have yielded a loss of $30,080. In order to get a better understanding of how favorites and underdogs do both against the point spread and on the moneyline they need to be broken into four groups; point spread favorite, moneyline favorite, point spread underdog, and moneyline underdog.

Because many top sports betting sites don’t offer moneyline wagering on games with a point spread of 1.5 or less or 10.5 and higher, those games have been excluded from the three-year study.

Moneyline Favorites Point Spread Favorites

2.0 points (-130) 107-79 +430 2.0 points 94-82-10 +380

2.5 points (-140) 108-74 +440 2.5 points 89-93-0 -1330

3.0 points (-150) 126-99 -2250 3.0 points 106-109-10 -1390

3.5 points (-165) 118-80 -1400 3.5 points 93-104-0 -2140

4.0 points (-190) 118-85 -4350 4.0 points 88-109-6 -3190

4.5 points (-200) 138-71 -400 4.5 points 105-104-0 -940

5.0 points (-220) 126-75 -3900 5.0 points 95-100-6 -1500

5.5 points (-240) 140-51 +1760 5.5 points 106-85-0 +1250

How To Play Moneyline Basketball

6.0 points (-250) 135-51 +750 6.0 points 99-81-6 +990

6.5 points (-300) 135-55 -3100 6.5 points 96-93-0 -630

7.0 points (-330) 139-34 +2680 7.0 points 95-72-6 +1580

7.5 points (-360) 129-34 +660 7.5 points 82-81-0 -710

8.0 points (-450) 103-21 +850 8.0 points 54-61-9 -1310

8.5 points (-500) 116-33 -4900 8.5 points 79-70-0 +200

9.0 points (-550) 98-30 -6700 9.0 points 57-65-6 -1450

9.5 points (-600) 102-13 +2400 9.5 points 74-41-0 +2890

10 points (-650) 80-9 +2150 10 points 54-34-2 +1560

Total -14,880 Total -5740

As you can see from the chart, small favorites of 2.5 points or less fared much better when bet on the moneyline compared to the point spread, showing a profit of $870 compared to a $950 loss if using the point spread. But as the lines get higher, there is definitely more value to use the point spread and stay away from the bigger moneyline prices. Favorites of six or more points showed a moneyline loss of $5,210, while betting on the favorites with the point spread would have yielded a profit of $3,120.

The chart suggests playing the extremely small favorites on the moneyline and the extremely large favorites using the point spread.

Moneyline Underdogs Point Spread Underdogs

2.0 points (+110) 79-107 -2010 2.0 points 82-94-10 -2140

2.5 points (+120) 108-74 +440 2.5 points 89-93-0 -1330

3.0 points (+130) 99-126 +270 3.0 points 109-106-10 -760

3.5 points (+145) 80-118 -200 3.5 points 104-93-0 +170

4.0 points (+165) 85-118 +2225 4.0 points 109-88-6 +1220

Nba Moneyline Explained Leaders

4.5 points (+170) 71-138 -1730 4.5 points 104-105-0 -1150

5.0 points (+180) 75-126 +900 5.0 points 100-95-6 -450

5.5 points (+190) 51-140 -4310 5.5 points 85-106-0 -3160

6.0 points (+200) 51-135 -3300 6.0 points 81-99-6 -2790

6.5 points (+240) 55-134 -200 6.5 points 93-96-0 -1260

7.0 points (+250) 34-139 -3380 7.0 points 72-95-6 -3250

7.5 points (+280) 34-129 -3380 7.5 points 81-82-0 -920

8.0 points (+325) 21-103 -3475 8.0 points 61-54-9 +160

8.5 points (+350) 33-116 -50 8.5 points 70-79-0 -1690

9.0 points (+375) 98-30 +1450 9.0 points 65-57-6 +230

9.5 points (+400) 102-13 -5000 9.5 points 41-74-0 -4040

10 points (+450) 9-80 -3950 10 points 34-54-2 -2430

Total -30,080 Total -22750

In a bit of irony, just as small moneyline favorites were the way to go, smaller moneyline underdogs also out-perform smaller underdogs against the point spread. Moneyline underdogs of 4 points or less showed a profit of $725, while betting underdogs of four points or less with the point spread would have yielded a loss of $2,840, so there is something to be said for taking smaller underdogs on the moneyline.

As the point spread gets higher, moneyline underdogs become worse bets than point spread wagers, although both were a losing proposition. Moneyline underdogs of 6 to 10 points showed a loss of $23,305, while those who bet the same teams against the point spread showed a loss of $15,990.

Moneylines do vary between different sportsbooks, so it always pays to shop for the best odds, which is one benefit of having more than one online account. One sportsbook may have all 3-point favorites -150 on the moneyline and +130 for the underdog, while another may make the favorite -155 and +135 on the underdog. The extra five cents will add up in a big way at the end of the season.

Nba Playoffs Explained

Other sportsbooks are reluctant to move the moneyline odds from the opening number. They may move the point spread and leave the moneyline alone, so you may be able to find some good prices on a game that has moved a point or two from the opening number.

Don’t overlook moneyline betting in the NBA, as sometimes it may be your best bet.

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For many bettors, placing a moneyline wager is the simplest way to make a bet. This type of wager is as straightforward as they come, asking bettors to determine the straight-up winner of a game or match.

Certain sports provide an additional option beyond the classic two-way moneyline. Three-way moneylines also allow sports bettors to bet either one of the two sides, but they provide an additional option by allowing bettors to put their money on the likelihood of the event ending in a tie.

Read on for a deeper look at which sports offer three-way moneyline betting and how to turn a profit when placing these wagers.

Three-Way Moneylines, Made Simple

Whereas a typical moneyline bet involves a bet on one of two options, three-way moneyline betting involves three options. When wagering on a three-way moneyline, you can bet either Team A to win, Team B to win, or for the event to end in a tie (sometimes referred to as a ‘draw’).

Naturally, three-way moneylines come into play for sports where the result may end in a tie and, as such, a winner cannot be determined through regular game time. Because it is harder to accurately predict an outcome with three choices rather than two, betting on a three-way moneyline will offer more value to bettors than a traditional moneyline.

Oddsmakers primarily employ three-way moneyline bets in two sports, hockey and soccer. Unsurprisingly, this is because these two sports are significantly more likely to end in a tie or draw.

The Three-Way Moneyline in Soccer

Wagers in soccer are decided after full-time, which refers to the full 90 minutes on the clock, plus any additional time that is added by the referee for injuries, stoppages, or any other reason. Unlike in the large majority of other sports, ties (“draws” in soccer terms) are extremely common due to the lower-scoring nature of the game.

In fact, draws occur so often in soccer that three-way moneyline betting is the most standard and popular way to bet on a soccer match. However, there are many other ways to bet on soccer as well.

Operationally, betting on the draw is just like betting on a side. However, when betting on the draw, you’re hoping for the score to be tied at the end of full-time. An example of three-way moneyline odds for a soccer match could be as follows:

As you can see, the option of a draw is listed in the same fashion as choosing either team as the outright victor. It is worth noting that regular season matches can always end in a draw, but some tournament-style matches will extend into extra time and possibly into penalties. In these tournaments (where winners are guaranteed thanks to penalty kick shoot-outs), three-way moneyline bets are predicated on a result being determined in the 90 minutes of full-time play. In this case, your bet will be graded as a loss if the side you select to win does so after regular time.

Three-Way Moneyline in Hockey

There are many hockey leagues around the world, but most hockey bettors wager on the National Hockey League (NHL).

Standard, two-way moneyline betting is a popular NHL wager. However, because games are often tied after three periods, most hockey betting sites also offer three-way moneylines on most games.

Two-way moneylines betting on the NHL ask you to pick a side to win outright, even if the game goes to overtime or ends in a shooutout. Whether your team wins after three periods, during overtime or through a shootout, if the team you pick wins—you win.

Nba Money Line Explained

A standard, two-way moneyline bet looks like this:

To compare the differences, let’s look at three-way moneyline odds for this same game. Remember that the three-way moneyline eliminates overtime from the wager, meaning you’re simply betting on the outcome at the end of three periods.

Nba Moneyline Explained Odds

As you can see below, Vegas is still the favorite. However, in the three-way moneyline option, odds for both Vegas and Vancouver are longer. This means that if you select either team as an outright winner, you’ll see a better return on the three-way moneyline than you would on the two-way moneyline.

The tie is deemed the least likely option, so it offers the longest odds and biggest payout.

So if you’re looking for better value, longer odds, and higher payouts, three-way moneyline betting is the way to go. But remember, if you’re betting on a winner of the game, the bet is toast if they win in overtime or during the shootout. Three-way moneylines aren’t always the safest bet, but they can offer superior value.

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Nba Moneyline Explained

Three-way moneyline betting is just one of numerous ways to expand your horizons betting on sports. If you’re looking to learn more about betting terms, strategies and the sports betting industry, be sure to visit our 101 guides to sports betting.

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